爱尔兰课程作业指导服务：全球金融稳定报告分析Global Financial Stability Report

Crisis risks in emerging markets have subsided, but vulnerabilities remain.
危机在新兴市场风险已经平息,但漏洞依然存在

Tail risks in emerging markets have declined as a result of strong policy measures—including increased IMF resources. Financial stresses have eased substantially in emerging Europe, but vulnerabilities remain high. Western European banks appear able to absorb deteriorating credit conditions in emerging Europe, but may lack sufficient capital to support a recovery in the region. Asia and Latin America have benefited most from the stabilization of core markets and a recovery in portfolio inflows. Although international flows into emerging market debt have recovered, they have been skewed toward higher quality borrowers, leaving many corporates facing substantial rollover risks, particularly in emerging Europe. Financial policies should continue to foster an orderly adjustment of bank, corporate, and household balance sheets. Extending agreements to maintain or even increase sustainable cross-border bank funding channels would also help. Impaired credit channels may face difficulty meeting even tepid private sector demand.

新兴市场的尾部风险已经减少由于强有力的政策措施,包括增加国际货币基金组织的资源。金融压力大大缓解了在新兴欧洲,但漏洞仍然很高。西欧银行似乎能够吸收信贷环境恶化在新兴欧洲,但可能缺乏足够的资金来支持经济复苏的地区。

With ongoing bank deleveraging pressure and dislocations in securitization markets, ourscenarios envisage the supply of bank credit falling for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010 both in the United States and Europe. When set against projected demand for credit by the public and private sectors, it appears that ex ante supply may fall short of even anemic private sector demand. As a result, pressure on funding rates could increase and the flow of credit to support recovery could be curtailed. The results highlight which areas are likely to suffer the tightest credit conditions and where prolonged policy interventions are needed to ensure an adequate flow of credit, particularly with the authorities’ objective of keeping interest rates low.

与正在进行的银行业去杠杆化压力和混乱在证券化市场,想像银行信贷的供给下降的其余2009年和2010年都在美国和欧洲。当反对预计信贷需求的公共和私营部门,似乎事前供应可能缺乏甚至贫血私营部门需求。

The transfer of private risks to sovereign balance sheets needs careful management. The transfer of risk to public balance sheets as a result of financial system rescues and fiscal stimulus packages has raised concerns that record sovereign issuance could push up interest rates and hurt the nascent recovery. In this context, credit capacity could struggle to meet even tepid private sector demand, while deteriorating public finances may compromise sovereign creditworthiness. Countries should mitigate this risk by designing and articulating medium-term fiscal consolidation plans that take into account their financial sector stabilization policies and contingent liabilities.

Incentives are critical to repair and restart securitization.

私人风险的转移主权资产负债表需要谨慎管理。风险的转移公共资产负债表,由于金融体系救援和财政刺激计划引发了担忧,即记录主权发行可能会推高利率,伤害了刚刚开始的复苏。

Given the importance of repairing credit intermediation, Chapter 2 examines the role of private securitization and assesses proposals to restart the market. A combination of new regulation Given the importance of repairing credit intermediation, Chapter 2 examines the role of private securitization and assesses proposals to restart the market. A combination of new regulation. The chapter suggests that a robust private securitization market requires policy action in several areas, including credit rating agency oversight, accounting practices, capital charges, and retention policies. This action needs to be coordinated across regulators within a country and internationally. The chapter illustrates the potential dangers of uncoordinated responses by examining the impact of retention policies and capital requirements imposed on originators and shows that these could, in some cases, fail to encourage screening and monitoring or, in other cases, make securitization prohibitively expensive. Undertaking careful impact studies before introducing new regulations should ensure that their interaction and potential for damaging unintended consequences is recognized in advance. 

The chapter also examines the benefits and costs of issuing covered bonds, in which the loan cash flows are pooled but kept on the balance sheet of the issuing entity. This method has the advantage that the issuer has an incentive to screen and monitor the loans, but because they remain on the issuer’s balance sheet, capital must still be held against them, reducing the benefits of securitization. Nonetheless, the advantages of capital-market-type financing—selling the bonds to investors—allows more intermediation to occur. On balance, the chapter concludes that this model, too, should be encouraged with appropriate legislation and regulation.

A. Global Financial Stability Map

Macroeconomic risks have receded as the economic downturn is showing signs of troughing. The IMF’s baseline forecast for global growth has been upwardly revised, with advanced economies expected to register positive growth in 2010, and emerging economies projected to rebound significantly. The better outlook for global growth underpins much of the improvement in other categories of the map. Prospects for global trade have improved, and fears of widespread deflation have receded, with global breakeven inflation rates recovering from historical lows. Still, the recovery is expected to be slow, with risks tilted to the downside. Growth is expected to remain below

potential in advanced economies, as the deleveraging process runs its course. Credit growth is likely to remain muted, lagging the recovery, as banks and securitization markets (Sections B and D) remain in a state of repair. The transfer of risks from the private sector to the public sector has also raised concerns about sovereign balance sheet risks (Section E).

B. Challenges on the Road to Recovery for the Global Financial System

Since the April 2009 GFSR, policy actions have reduced systemic and iquidity risks, prompting a substantial narrowing in credit spreads (Table 1.1). Consequently, our estimates of actual and potential global writedowns held by banks and other financial institutions have fallen by some $600 billion from about $4 trillion to $3.4 trillion.3,4 Nevertheless, the depth of the economic downturn and a still-tentative recovery is weighing on the performance of most asset classes. 

What do economic conditions imply for the future trajectory of loan losses?

credit developments in each region separately, and allows us to project credit deterioration using World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts. Although improved, this methodology is subject to considerable uncertainty in view of limitations in the underlying data. Nevertheless, it provides a useful basis to assess the impact of the economic downturn and financial stress on loan performance. Some of the key sources of uncertainty are highlighted in Box 1.1 and a detailed methodology is provided in Annex 1.2. To highlight the uncertainty surrounding the forecasts, confidence intervals are plotted in the second figure. Despite the limited number of observations and their low frequency, the euro area model compares well with that for the U.S., which is based on a larger sample of quarterly data (see third figure). Importantly, the measure of uncertainty depicted does not capture that related to measurement errors which can arise from consolidation, cross-country variation, and changes in accounting standards. The confidence bands also omit uncertainty associated with our assumptions about exogenous variables.  Issues with Withdrawing Liquidity Looking ahead, central banks may face some important trade-offs. A careful exit strategy might warrant a gradual reduction of reserves, as a quick sell-off could disrupt financial markets. If, at the same time, inflation expectations start increasing, central banks may need to increase the remuneration rate they pay on excess reserves as a means to implement the

targeted policy rate. Although this extra cost for the central banks could be offset by the extra revenue resulting from the expanded balance sheet, central banks face a substantial income risk. In addition to remunerating excess reserves, central banks have a variety of other options for reducing liquidity such as issuing central bank bills, reverse repos, or increasing the reserve requirement.