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金融发展与经济增长实证分析的留学生作业代写

时间:2016-09-01 10:13来源:www.ukassignment.org 作者:cinq 点击:
金融发展与经济增长实证分析的留学生作业代写
An Empirical Evidence Of Financial Development And Economic Growth 
 
金融发展已被认为是经济增长的决定性因素之一。我们认为,在金融发展指标M1、M2和M3作为独立变量,提高经济增长。模式研究是基于单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验。所有这些方法都用来知道金融发展与经济增长之间的关系是一个存在与不存在的问题。该数据将覆盖从1980至30,这是在马来西亚的2009年数据。
关键词:M1、M2、M3、单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验金融发展、经济增长。
 
研究背景主要集中在经济增长和金融发展为因变量,自变量是M1、M2和M3。这两个依赖和独立的变量将被用来分析作为金融发展和经济增长的为这项研究提供实证。
 
ABSTRACT 摘要
Financial development has been considered as one of the major in determinant factor in economic growth. We consider indicators in financial development are M1, M2 and M3 as independent variable in enhance in economic growth. The modes understudied are based on unit root test, Cointegration Test and Granger causality tests. All of these methods used to know the relationship between financial development and economic growth is an existing or not. The data will cover from 1980 until 2009 which are 30 years data in Malaysia.
 
Keywords: M1, M2 and M3, Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Granger causality tests financial development, economic growth.
 
INTRODUCTION 简介
The background of the study focuses on the economic growth as dependent variable, and financial development as the independent variable which are M1, M2 and M3. Both dependent and independent variables will be used to analyze as an evidence of financial development and economic growth for this research.
 
The effects of the financial sector on real economy can hardly be over-emphasized: Goldsmith 1969). Long-run correlation between financial development and economic growth is evaluated in a theoretically based multivariate VAR model, a framework in which the analysis in the present paper relies heavily on Luintel and Khan (1999). The examine the long-run correlation between financial development and economic growth in a multivariate VAR framework, though the test is carried out using unit root tests and co-integration analysis in a panel-based vector error correction model (VECM) (Christopoulos and Tsionas 2004).
 
This study will use 30 years data which cover data from 1980 until 2009. The data were which is contain for dependent variable is economic growth which is more focus to gross domestic product (GDP) and independent variable are M1,M2, and M3 (obtained from Bank Negara Malaysia aka BNM).
 
The significance from this study will give impact to the economic growth because after does the econometric test used three method as just mention above to the financial development and its dependent variable its show that the variable its significance, means increase in the M1,M2 and M3 will give impact to the financial development and economic growth simultaneously.
 
Furthermore, from this study will also give benefit other researchers and students as a guide line to do research in the future?
 
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Introduction
The claim that financial development will rapidly increase economic growth in some years, this paper will examine whether this equation have evidence or not. Besides that, it is also find out the related financial development and economic growth through the equation provided.
 
According to Liang and Teng (2006), it's not easy to investigate various aspects for the finance-growth nexus since simply test the correlation among them, where it was used in most cross-country studies, and the limited natural in the cross-sectional technique can lead to spurious estimations. Furthermore it is already know correlation reveal nothing about causation. Besides that, according to Ang (2008) for developing countries, it face with the lack of sufficient time series data therefore the relationship between financial development and economic growth have been dominated by cross-country studies until recently. In these studies more focus given to the financial development which is its main features M1, M2, and M3 are an important to determine of the economic growth.
 
The main focused on these studies either to know whether the financial development plays a better or positive role in enhance economic growth or vice versa and examining the direction of causality between these three variables.
 
Literature Review 文献综述
In this study, we try to find the evidence causality between financial development and economic growth or does economic growth propel financial development, or no relationship among them or financial development and economic growth interrelated.
 
According to Patrick (1966), causality between financial development and economic growth base on the "supply-leading" hypothesis and demand following hypothesis. The supply-leading hypothesis is a relationship from financial development to economic growth, means the creation of financial institution and increases the supply of financial services markets; therefore it leads to real economic growth. In this phenomenon, was supported by McKinnon (1973), King and Levine (1993a, b), Neusser and Kugler (1998), and Levine et al. (2000), where their theoretical and empirical writing on study have shown that financial development is causes and important economic growth.
 
Economic growth effect to financial development through the "demand-following" hypothesis (Patrick 1966), where, when demand for financial services increase, it might induce an expansion in the financial sector as the real economy growth, for example financial sector responds passively to economic growth. This hypothesis was supported by Gurley and Shaw (1967), Goldsmith (1969), and Jung (1986).
 
Financial development and economic growth are positively related to each other, as Schumpeter (1911), Patrick (1966), Goldsmith (1969), MacKinnon (1973), Shaw (1973) and Ang (2008) the relationship between this two remains an important to each other in economic industry. Obviously, relationship between financial development and economic growth still no general consensus among economists. Because of that as a practical way to settle this controversy, empirical will be using Liang and Teng (2006).
 
Therefore, it is normal to use system of equations in the relationship between financial development and economic growth Ang (2008). The relationship between financial development and economic growth have been analyzed and it have a different aspect in theoretical and empirical studies for cross-nations as well as on industry and single country and firm level through time-series, dynamic panel techniques and cross sectional (Liang and Teng 2006).
 
A main point of empirical studies, mainly using cross sectional approaches, has been seen that the level of financial development is a best way to predictor of economic growth Beck, Levine, and Loayza, (2000) Gregorio and Guidotti, (1995) King and Levine, (1993); Levine, (2002). A numerous of recent journals on endogenous growth also demand the better role of financial intermediaries played to economic growth (Amable and Chatelain, 2001; Bencivenga and Smith, 1991; Bencivenga, Smith and Starr, 1995; Benhabib and Spiegel, 2000).
 
Besides the system of equation, it has a dual effect on economic growth in financial development Gregorio and Guidotti (1995). First, for the efficiency of capital accumulation markets must develop of domestic financial, hence increasing the marginal productivity of capital.
 
According to Goldsmith (1969), financial intermediation contributes to raising the savings rate, thus the investment rate hence increasing savings rate. It shows positive correlation between the level of real per capital GNP and financial development. He argues that, the process of growth has response effects on the financial markets through creating incentives to get further financial development.
 
From other perspective, De Gregorio (1993) and Jappelli and Pagano (1994) analyze effect of financial developments on savings rate. They focused on the effects of borrowing constraints - when not easy for individual to borrow against for the future income - on economic growth.
 
Half from individuals who is inability to borrow against future income prefer to increase savings; this is because to finance current consumption, individuals must have strong financial wealth through increase savings when that individual unable to borrow.
 
In this study, economic growth will be more focus to the monetary aggregate as a main feature for financial development which is M1, M2 and M3. Friedman and Meiselman (1963) have found that money is more correlated with consumption; this is significant to show that consumption will give impact to economic growth through uses of feature of financial development such as M1 and M2.
 
Using of equation, the use of this approach allow the test of a variety of channels that can give impact on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The six equations, such as, financial development, private investment, private saving, saving investment correlation, foreign direct investment, and aggregate output are used in this basic model. This simple framework provides the link between financial development and economic growth. For every equation is formulated based on a theoretical model Ang (2008).


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