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美国指导essay参考：金融危机对中国经济的影响 1.引言 美国次贷危机引发的金融危机,已迅速蔓延到世界的每一个角落,其中中国市场遭受了很多问题。由于中国的社会经济特征,持续的金融危机对中国经济的影响是十分严重的和广泛的。这次次贷危机是由美国住房抵押贷款引起的,并且由于中国房地产在其操作市场也有明显的缺点,此次金融危机对中国经济有很大的影响(Elena Carletti艾伦,富兰克林,2008)。本文旨在评估金融危机对中国经济的影响,分析金融危机和中国经济本身。本文分为五个部分，第一部分总体介绍的论文,包括论文的目的和结构。第二部分主要讨论了当前的金融危机的经济背景,是由金融危机的原因和发展,以及中国经济的现状引起的。第三部分和第四部分是本文的主体,直接探讨了金融危机对中国经济的影响。 I. Introduction 引言 The financial crisis raised by the American subprime crisis, has quickly spread to every corner of the world, among which the Chinese market suffered a lot. Due to the social economical characteristics of Chinese economy, the impact of the ongoing financial crisis on Chinese economy is serious and broad. This subprime crisis is caused by the America housing mortgage loans, and since the Chinese housing markets also have significant disadvantages during its operation it the market, this financial crisis has great impact on the Chinese economy (Allen, Franklin, Elena Carletti, 2008). In this thesis, aims to assess the impact of the ongoing financial crisis on Chinese economy, we both analyze the financial crisis and the Chinese economy itself. The thesis is consisted with five parts. The first part gives a general introduction of the whole thesis, including the purpose and structure of the thesis. The second part mainly discusses the economic background of the ongoing financial crisis, which is composed by the reasons and development of the financial crisis, and the current situation of the Chinese economy. The third part, together with the forth part, is the main body of this thesis, which directly discusses the impacts of the financial crisis on the Chinese economy, which are composed by five parts and we will explicitly discuss them in the third chapter. The forth chapter further discusses the assessment of the impact of the financial economy, which includes the strategies of the Chinese government to treat the financial crisis, problems of the current Chinese government revealed in this financial crisis and the corresponding suggestions for the reformation of the Chinese economic system, as well as the world’s view on China after this financial crisis. The fifth chapter gives tea summarization of the whole thesis, which demonstrates the experiences and knowledge attainted through the writing of this thesis, as well the significance of the suggestions raised in this thesis. II. Economic background of the Ongoing Financial Crisis 2.1 Reasons and development of the financial crisis The financial crisis is also called financial storm, which refers the whole financial indexes or most financial indexes of one country or several countries or regions deteriorate dramatically in short time. Its basic characteristics are the people’s pessimistic prediction on the future economy and the currency in the whole area is devaluated on large scale, the total economic amount and the scale suffer huge loss and the economic growth suffer dramatic slowdown (Cordell, Larry, Karen Dynan, 2008). The financial crisis could be divided into currency crisis, loan crisis, bank crisis and others. The subprime loan refers to the loans lent to subordinate organizations or less income certification, thus have higher risks to violate the contract. The subprime mortgage loan in America is mainly the subprime housing mortgage loan (David, Greelaw, Jan Hatzius, 2008). Due to the high loan risk, the rate of subprime mortgage loan is usually high, while the financial organizations low the restraints for the mortgage loan in order to attain more profits. In the pursuit for high profits, the scale of mortgage loan in America dramatically enlarged. After 2004, due to the constant slowdown of growth rate of American economy and the housing market, the probability of default subprime mortgage loan dramatically increased and caused the bankrupt of the subprime mortgage loan organizations, caused the forced shutdown of the investment funds an fierce inflation of the stock market and subprime crisis broke out. From the American subprime crisis, the American Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suffered the “Two Room” crisis, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the American largest insurance company AIG was on the verge of bankruptcy, which rescued latterly with an investment of 85 billion dollars (BIS, 2007). The largest American savings and loans bank-Washington Mutual Inc shut down ,countries like Iceland was on the verge of bankruptcy, and then the stock market among the whole world fell. The American subprime crisis has evolved into the financial crisis through the whole America which influenced the whole world seriously. 2.2 Current situation of Chinese economy First, in the characteristics of Chinese economy before the financial crisis, the currency inflation is the most outstanding one. The constant rising price of all social objects is the typical feature of the inflation (Li Hengyang, 1999). The house price is constantly rising which causes significant social and economical problems. Second, the economical growth depends much on the investment and export business. As we know, GDP consists of three factors: consumption, investment and net export. Generally speaking the investment in the developing countries takes 20-30% of the total GDP, while investment in the developed countries takes 15%-20%. The investment in China has successively taken 40%-50% of the total GDP, such a huge proportion will definitely cause an excess production capacity. Due the huge production capacity, the consumption in China has been depressed for several years, and the large amount of the production capacity depends on the overseas market. Therefore the export business seems specially important for the Chinese economy. Third, state-owned monopoly is serious, the foreign enterprises are supported, while the private enterprises are excluded and the gap between the poor and rich is becoming broader and broader (Varga. Defino, 2008). In China, the state-owned enterprises control the crucial, fundamental and natural monopoly industries such as the military, power, oil, power generation, coal, civil aviation , air shipping and other industries. Meanwhile, the state-owned enterprises also control the bank, insurance, stocks, salt, tobacco, medical, education news media and other industries. And these monopoly state-owned enterprises have usually been opposite to the people’s interests while seeking for their own interests, causing great disadvantages. Forth, the constant revaluation of RMB. With the typical economical characteristics of inflation, the revaluation of RMB is the inevitable outcome. the revaluation of RMB is mainly refer to the US dollar, since the RMB does not revalued compared to other currencies, while the US dollar is devalued compared to almost all kinds of currencies in the world. Thus, the revaluation pg RMB plays most function for the Chinese enterprises that conduct business with American enterprises. III. Impact of the Financial crisis on the Chinese Economy 3.1 Apparent slowdown of the growth rate of Chinese economy The most direct and serious of the financial crisis is the apparent slowdown of the growth rate of Chinese economy. According to assumption in the annual report of the Asian Development Bank-The Expectation and Renovation of development in Asia in 2008, the growth rate of Chinese economy will reduce from the 11.9% of 2007 to 10% of 2008, which will further reduce to 9.5% in 2009 (Lan Qingxin, 2008). The dramatic slowdown of the growth rate of Chinese economy manly reflects in two levels. The first one is visible that many investment organizations, especially the financial enterprises in China have invested in America, and suffered great loss with the bankrupt of the investment or management depression. Some enterprises that have entered to international market and established joint ventures or cooperative enterprises will suffer reduced profits due to the influence of the financial crisis. Since the slowdown of American economy has greatly restraint the consumer demand of American market, the growth of Chinese export business is correspondingly reduced significantly. In Guangdong and Zhejiang areas where the main economy is the traditional Chinese export business, many enterprises have been in difficulties, even faced situation of bankrupt due to the reduce of the oversea market demand. The second one is the invisible impact which is achieved through constant economic conduction. For example, the rescue of American government to the market and the slowdown of American economy might caused a weaker US dollar. The change of the exchange rate will not only reduce the export profits growth of Chinese export enterprises and increase the export costs, but also lead to direct exchange loss. 3.2 Devaluation risk of foreign reserves China has a dollar reserve of 18 thousand billion dollars, which will face the devaluation risk with the devaluation of US dollar. The reduce of the federal funds rate of US dollar, on one hand could enable the capital withdrawn in short time go flow back to China, promote the raise of the price of the domestic capital objects and cause greater investment bubble; on the other hand, will bring more serious difficult to the operation of the Chinese monetary policy and the micro control (Robert Higgins, 2007). It will cause a dilemma to the Chinese government to decide whether to maintain the economic growth or to control the currency inflation.#p#分页标题#e# According to statistics of China's Bureau of Statistics: in the first half year, the dollar reserve in China has increased 28.06 billion US dollars and created a total foreign reserve of 18.088 billion dollars. By the June of 2008, China has held a US treasury of 50.38 billion dollars and become the largest holder of US treasury. Due to this fact, China should firstly consider the safety problem of the dollar reserve in this subprime crisis. 3.3 Obstacle to the economic growth of China financial industry Under the situation of an economic slowdown, the spaces for the business development of each bank both at home and abroad will dramatically reduced. The unstability of people’s income will increase and the under the tightening monetary policy, conflict between the huge increase of the deposit and serious reduce of incremental loan become outstanding, with a basic interest rate cut down by 0.27% (Cao Huan, 2008). Since the economic slowdown caused the bankrupt of many industries and enterprises, the banks have suffered huge stress reaction of non-performing loans (such as the real estate industry, which will be analyzed in the following section). After the crack of the capital bubbles, the bank collateral has shrunk a lot, exceeded the “alarming line”, lost the ability for the second repayment. Loans of real estate, land or stocks are most obvious; banks that have hold loans of American enterprises or banks suffered great loss. For example, Bank of China Group has held a loan of 75.62 million dollar of the Brother Leiman Company and its subsidiaries, The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has held a loan of 50 million dollars of Leiman Company and China Merchants Bank has held a loan of 80 million dollars of Leiman Company. 3.4 Serious slowdown of the growth of Chinese foreign trade China is a country which has high reserve and low consumption which means that the Chinese economy mains depends in the overseas demand, while the America has taken 50% of the total export trade. Therefore the decrease of the American domestic demand has greatly restraint the Chinese export, and influenced the development of Chinese economy. According to statistics of The National City Bank of New York, if the American economy slows down by 1%, the Chinese economy will slow down by 1.3%. Meanwhile the decrease of American demand has led to the decrease of demand from the whole world, causing more serious overcapacity in China. The constant upvaluation of the RMB would further restrain the Chinese export, cause economic slowdown and enhance the domestic employment pressure. 3.5 Vital impact on the real estate industry With the spread of the American financial crisis, the American investment enterprises are preparing for the fluent crisis, and planning to withdraw from the Chinese market, causing the phenomenon that American investment enterprises sell the real estates in China promptly, which caused the market downturn worse again. The financial crisis made people’s psychological alarm intensified, which hit the house buyers’ confidence, and enhanced their decisions to wait and see the housing market (Bai Ming, 2008). The banks lent less loans to the real estate industry, and the ways for seeking financing by listing on the stock market has been shattered with the slowdown of stock market. The two main channels for the real estate industry to seek financing by listing on the stock market were obstructed and the capital supply for the real estate became tight. From 2001 to October of 2007, the average house price has increased by 100%, and the financial crisis at this time would the squeeze bubbles of the Chinese real estate industry itself, increase the risks for the business banks to lend real estate loans. According to the loan records of banks for 65 real estate companies, from the adjustment of real estate market in last October, the phenomenon of inadequate capital of the developers became obvious; however real estate developers still absorbed lots of capitals from the foreign private investors with higher rate. The Chinese government organization has declared that the house price index in 70 cities has firstly decreased compared to the last month since August, and the house price index in Shanghai has decreased by 0.2%. at present, the falling of house price in China becomes more frequent and universe, and the investment in real estate further shrunk. IV. Assessment of the Impact on Chinese Economy 4.1 Strategies of the Chinese government for the treatment of the financial crisis Facing with this financial crisis, though the American government has adopted a “700-billion-dollar market rescue plan” to rescue the financial crisis, people cannot negligent for this crisis, instead, should actively handle this crisis. China should treat this financial crisis through active selection of policies and under the influence of the global economic trend. Firstly, adjust the strategies for the foreign reserve exchange and improve diversity of foreign exchange assets, transfer the majority from the American assets to assets with multi kinds of currencies, and optimize the investment structure of dollar assets; purchase overseas oil, and other scarce resources, participate the stocks and acquisition of related overseas enterprises; support enterprises with enough conditions to go out and the domestic residents to finance and invest for foreign business. Secondly, enhance the risk management and supervision of the financial industry, further improve the legal representative treatment system. Establish effective risk assessment and risk alarming system, enhance the risk-resisting ability of the financial system. Actively and smoothly promote the overseas investment and enlargement, fulfill risk allocation through the allocation of assets in all areas and effectively reduce the total risk. Thirdly, stimulate the domestic demand, upgrade industrial structure, enlarge the employment and increase the disposable income of the residents. The central government should provide more public service to promote the public to reduce reserve, thus increasing the domestic demand; accelerate the transformation of ways of economic growth, issue related policies to promote the adjustment of export structure and upgrading of industrial structure. The export enterprise should actively explore new market and fulfill the strategy of diversifying markets. Fourthly, intensify the management and supervision of real estate market. The government should set up the industrial risk alarming system, intensify the risk management of real estate loan system. Pay close attention to the real estate industrial index and predict the developing trend of the real estate industry; adopt the micro control such as currency policy to avoid or release the negative influence of the large-scale decrease of the house price. In one word, the greatest alarm the American financial crisis left China is: in the present world where the financial market connection is becoming closer and closer, the Chinese government should at time of enhancing the risk-resisting ability of the domestic market, actively take part in the international financial cooperation, which is the correct way to ensure the healthy development of the financial market. 4.2 Problems in the current Chinese economic system In the current Chinese economy system several problems are outstanding. The first is the unbalance of the total economical structure, leading the lock of internal drive for the economic development. The economic growth mainly depends on the promotion of policies, and the social investment is influenced by the market confidence, foreign demands, financial restraints marketing entering restrains and other factors. Problems such as structural contradiction, and over production capacity are outstanding. Secondly, the subsequent problems of the financial crisis, the economical bubbles are still serious, which significantly impact the safety of the Chinese commercial banks (Zhatng Yansheng, Wang Haifeng, 2008). The constantly rising of house price, and unbalance of the relation between supply and demand are still serious. The large amount of house loans in banks accelerated the situation, while the economical bubbles in stocks and housing market are worrying. Thirdly, social problems such as unbalanced distribution of national income become more and more outstanding. The broader and broader gap between the rich and the poor, the problems of employment, uncompleted construction of social legal system are still deeply concerned. 4.3 Suggestions for the reformation of Chinese economic system Though we have put forwards some suggestions for the Chinese government to treat the financial crisis, which have already included some suggestions for the reforms of Chinese economical system, herein we will still raise the issue of reform of financial system. Since the active financial policy is the fundamental way to solve social problems and seek the economic development. The main task should be the promotion of reform of the monopoly industries, the combination of micro control and the market valuable rules, the intensification of construction of legal system and the stick to scientific development value and optimization of credit structure. The environmental conversation is also the strategic choice for the development of Chinese energy and resources. Under the global trend, the environmental conservation becomes the top issue in the economical development. only doing a better work on the environmental conservation, can the Chinese economical system be proved as a sustainable economical system, and get significant success in the future development.#p#分页标题#e# 4.4 The world’s view on China after the treatment of this crisis 150 During the financial crisis, the Chinese economy, due to large disadvantages, has suffered serious impact. While both the Chinese government and individual enterprise worked hard and made quick response to treat the financial crisis, meaning to rescue the Chinese financial market in the first time. And their efforts are paid off, the Chinese economy and financial market have been recovered in short time. From this quick and efficient response, and the apparent results, the Chinese government has proved to the comprehensive economy of China to the whole world. No matter how huge problem the Chinese economy has, China has developed into a country with strong competitive ability and self-adjusting ability, which has been proved by the fact to the world. As the minority socialist country, the China has already attracted lots of the world’s attention, while the constant growth the Chinese comprehensive power has attracted even more attention of the whole world. V. Conclusion Through the analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on Chinese economy, we have better understand both the source and charactng eristics of the financial crisis, and the characteristics and current situation of Chinese economy, which include the market characteristics, the economical structure, people’s living standard, and other economic indexes. In the analysis of the financial crisis, we have adopted the basic economic and financial principles learned in our course books, and attained a more profound understanding of the basic economic and financial knowledge in our course books, and all the experiences are precious and useful in our further learning and living. Through the writing of this thesis, we have also mastered the skill for composing an academic thesis, which also accumulated our professional and comprehensive skills, paving way for our further study and analysis. After carful and reasonable analysis of the financial crisis and the current situation of Chinese economy system, as well as the treatment of the Chinese government to the financial crisis, we have put forwards to some suggestions for the Chinese government to conduct reformation on the economical system, as well as other fields related to the economical development, hoping to raise some useful suggestions for the other countries have same situation with China. Bibliography 1. Allen, Franklin, Elena Carletti. The Role Liquidity in Financial Crisis. Paper Prepared for 2008 Jackson Hole Conference. 2008 2. Ausubel, Lawrence, Peter Cramton. A Troubled Asset Reverse Auction. 3. Brunnermeirer, Markus. Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2009 4. Cordell, Larry, Karen Dynan. The Incentives of Mortgage Servicers; Myths and Realities. Financial and Economics Discussion Series Paper 2008-46. Fedural Reserve Board, Washington DC 5. Gorton Gary. 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