留学生金融学作业：Impact of Bad news on Company Share Prices

留学生金融学作业-利空消息对公司股价的影响。本文是一篇金融学专业留学生作业范文，主要内容是讲述早在21世纪初，安然公司和世通公司的会计丑闻就给金融市场带来了巨大的冲击，导致投资者和股东因公司财务数据的欺诈报告而损失数百万美元。本篇留学生作业提出这引发了人们的主要担忧，即管理层的个人激励或负面新闻公告的战略延迟将如何在管理层和股东之间造成信息不对称，从而产生会计欺诈的可能性。人们把焦点放在了主要金融市场的政府身上，他们将对这些历史丑闻做出适当而迅速的反应。下面就一起来看一下这篇留学生金融学作业写作范文的具体内容。

Back in in the early 21st century, the accounting scandals of Enron (2001) and WorldCom (2002) brought a massive shock to the financial market, causing investors and shareholders to lose millions due to fraudulent reporting of the company’s financial data. This brought up major concerns on how managerial personal incentives or strategic delay of negative news announcement will create information asymmetry between the management and the shareholders, thus creating the potential for accounting frauds occurring. The spotlight was put onto governments of major financial markets on they are going to respond appropriately and quickly towards these historical scandals.

The British government acted by demanding the creation of new auditory units and an independent ethical standards board within the Financial Reporting Council (FRC), an independent financial regulatory board; The United States reacted by enacting the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) bill, which aims to protect shareholders from fraudulent representation in corporate financial statements and attempts to strengthen corporate oversight and improve corporate control.

英国政府采取行动，要求在独立的金融监管委员会财务报告委员会内设立新的听觉单位和独立的道德标准委员会；作为回应，美国颁布了《2002年萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》法案，该法案旨在保护股东免受公司财务报表中的欺诈性陈述，并试图加强公司监督和改善公司控制。

Nonetheless, these precautions will not fully prevent fraudulent financial reporting from arising, from small businesses to international names. Amongst the post-financial crisis of 2008, Tesco PLC a well-known multinational grocery and merchandise retailer was struck with a major case of fraudulency in late-2014. They admitted on September 22 that its first-half profits were overstated by an estimated £250m. This overstatement caused major speculation on the management within Tesco and put to question the internal controls of the firm. Deloitte was called in place of their usual auditors, amongst them PricewaterhouseCoopers, to undertake a comprehensive review of their accounts.

尽管如此，这些预防措施并不能完全防止从小企业到国际公司出现欺诈性财务报告。在2008年后金融危机中，著名的跨国杂货和商品零售商乐购在2014年末遭遇了一起重大欺诈案。他们在9月22日承认，其上半年利润被夸大了约2.5亿英镑。这种夸大引起了对乐购内部管理层的重大猜测，并对公司的内部控制提出了质疑。德勤被要求代替他们的常规审计师，其中包括普华永道，对他们的账目进行全面审查。

It was found that the overstatement was due to accelerated recognition of commercial income and the delayed accrual of costs. Tesco, already having come under threat from German discounters Aldi and Lidl and existing rival competition from other major grocery retailers like J Sainsbury and Waitrose, had suspended four senior managers and lost significant shareholder confidence.

调查发现，多报是由于商业收入的确认速度加快和费用的计提延迟。乐购已经受到德国折扣店Aldi和Lidl的威胁，以及来自J Sainsbury和Waitrose等其他主要杂货零售商的现有竞争对手的威胁，已暂停了四名高级经理的职务，并失去了重要股东的信心。

A study conducted by Cox and Weirich (2010) came into conclusion that within the cases of financial fraudulency, majority of it were by overstatement of company revenue. Thus, we may expect that stock prices will reaction differently to good and bad news. This will signify that managers likely be more vary of bad news being disclosed than good news, withholding bad news until the appropriate time to disclose them while quickly report good news to the shareholders or the public. Managers wanting to withhold bad news can be related to the agency problem as the firm’s performance might not be up to shareholders’ expectations. As managers are the main legitimate source of confidential information regarding the firm’s performance to the investment community, they have the power to decide the “appropriate” information being disclosed or withheld. This asymmetry of information between managers and shareholders can be reduced by managerial commitment towards immediate disclosure of private information, albeit good or bad; however, run the risk of revealing too much information to rivals.

Cox和Weirich进行的一项研究得出结论，在财务欺诈的情况下，大多数是由于夸大了公司收入。因此，我们可以预期股价对利好消息和利空消息的反应会有所不同。这意味着，经理们可能会对披露的利空消息比对利好消息有更多的了解，在适当的时候披露利空消息之前，他们会隐瞒利空消息，同时迅速向股东或公众报告利好消息。经理们想要隐瞒利空消息可能与代理问题有关，因为公司的业绩可能达不到股东的预期。由于管理人员是向投资界提供有关公司业绩的机密信息的主要合法来源，他们有权决定披露或隐瞒的“适当”信息。管理层承诺立即披露私人信息，无论好坏，都可以减少管理层和股东之间的这种信息不对称；然而，他们冒着向竞争对手透露过多信息的风险。

Based on previous findings of Kothari, Shu and Wysocki (2009), it is indicated that, on average, good news tends to be leaked out into the market while bad news is withheld until an appropriate time or when it is inevitable that the bad news must be released. Also, that the magnitude of market reaction towards bad news disclosure exceeds those of good. In Cox and Weirich (2002), it is evident that the stock market will eventually correct itself of any overreaction, suggesting that the markets, over a long term, are efficient having incorporated any publicly available information.

根据Kothari、Shu和Wysocki先前的研究结果，研究表明，平均而言，利好消息往往会泄露到市场中，而利空消息则会被隐瞒，直到适当的时候或不可避免地必须发布利空消息。此外，市场对利空消息披露的反应程度超过了利好消息披露的程度。在Cox和Weirich中，很明显，股票市场最终会纠正任何过度反应，这表明从长远来看，市场在纳入任何公开信息后是有效的。

The amount of change or the magnitude of market reaction towards the news can be measured in different ways depending on the nature of the announcement. There are a few things we need to consider when measuring the change in stock prices. Firstly, the implications of withholding bad news, as bad news tends to affect stock prices more negatively than good news positively, this implies that managers would want to accumulate and withhold bad news until a certain level or time. As when it is disclosed, the public would be expected to react much larger towards the bad news. Secondly, the effect of incentives on managers’ disclosure behaviour. Due to the aftermath of Enron (2001) and WorldCom (2002), many laws and rules have been implemented to put off managers from withholding any news, demanding more transparent financial documents and promote managerial integrity. Thus, managers will face risks like, litigation, career concerns, etc., that will highly put them off from withholding information. However, some managers may justify that withholding information may benefit the firm in the short term, delay costs that may affect the firm and hope that future good prospects may soften the impact of the bad news. This is usually the mentality that leads to managers wanting to manipulate figures and delay information disclosure.

根据公告的性质，可以用不同的方式来衡量变化的幅度或市场对该消息的反应程度。在衡量股票价格的变化时，我们需要考虑一些事情。首先，隐瞒利空消息的含义，因为利空消息对股价的负面影响往往大于对利好消息的正面影响，这意味着经理们希望积累并隐瞒利空消息，直到某个水平或时间。当它被披露时，预计公众会对利空消息做出更大的反应。第二，激励对管理者信息披露行为的影响。由于安然公司和世通公司的影响，许多法律和规则已经实施，以阻止经理隐瞒任何消息，要求更透明的财务文件，并促进管理诚信。因此，管理者将面临诉讼、职业问题等风险，这将大大阻碍他们隐瞒信息。然而，一些经理可能会证明，隐瞒信息可能在短期内对公司有利，延迟成本可能会影响公司，并希望未来的良好前景可能会减轻利空消息的影响。这通常是导致管理者想要操纵数据和延迟信息披露的心态。

Whenever a piece of new information is announced publicly by a firm, be it good or bad news. There will be an affect shown by it in the form of share price changes. Theoretically, good news will have a positive effect on the share price, and bad news having a negative effect. There are several methods on measuring the changes of stock price of the firm after news is disclosed. Using the dividend-change model, it shows the effects of information being disclosed. A dividend change is defined by the percentage difference in dividend, Div(t) – Div(t-1) / Div(t-1). Taking the dividend of time t minus the dividend of time t-1, over the dividend of time t-1.

每当一家公司公开宣布一条新信息时，无论是利好消息还是利空消息。它将以股价变化的形式产生影响。从理论上讲，利好消息会对股价产生积极影响，利空消息会产生负面影响。有几种方法可以衡量公司股价在消息披露后的变化。运用股利变动模型，展示了信息披露的效果。股息变化定义为股息的百分比差异，Div（t）–Div（t-1）/Div（t-1）。取时间t的除数减去时间t-1的除数，在时间t-1上的除数。

Management earnings forecasts can also affect the changes in stock prices. This is the management’s way of announcing that they predict the firm’s performance to be either better or worse than current. Analysts and media outlets will pick up on these announcements and product reports based on it and will likewise affect the way the public will foresee the performance of the firm. We can calculate this from taking [Management Forecast – Analyst Forecast]/[Analyst Forecast]. We can see the similarity to the dividend model but in contrast this uses future predicted values as oppose to past values.

管理层的盈利预测也会影响股价的变化。这是管理层宣布他们预测公司业绩比目前更好或更差的方式。分析师和媒体将了解这些公告和基于此的产品报告，并同样影响公众对公司业绩的预测方式。我们可以通过【管理预测-分析师预测】/【分析师预测】来计算。我们可以看到与股息模型的相似性，但相比之下，它使用了未来预测值，而不是过去的值。

Since 2012 Tesco has been having low profits ever since its first profit warning in 20 years. Based on the dividend-change model, it can be estimated that future dividends will not hold high returns. This is partly due to the sudden shock of the misstatement shaking investor confidence, suspension of several executive managers and change of CEO. All these factors contributing can be predicted that in the short term, Tesco’s stock prices will fall further until stability is achieved. Based on the management earnings forecast model, it is very clear that Tesco’s management was not confident in their future performances. Announcements made by Phil Clarke in June 2014 saying he has never seen such poor trading in all his time at Tesco signalled to the public that the firm is going through a crisis they can no longer hide and that investors should be prepared to make losses. It can also be said that the announcements are made to avoid any further litigation costs that come from delaying disclosure of critical information. Statistics also show that ever since major discounters have entered the market, Tesco, amongst the big 4 grocery retailers, has struggled to keep up their profits amidst all the competition.

自2012年以来，乐购自20年来首次发布利润预警以来，利润一直很低。基于股息变化模型，可以估计未来股息不会持有高回报。这在一定程度上是由于虚假陈述的突然冲击，动摇了投资者的信心，几位执行经理被停职，首席执行官更换。所有这些因素都可以预测，在短期内，乐购的股价将进一步下跌，直到实现稳定。根据管理层的盈利预测模型，很明显，乐购的管理层对其未来的业绩没有信心。2014年6月，菲尔·克拉克宣布，他在乐购任职期间从未见过如此糟糕的交易，这向公众表明，该公司正在经历一场他们无法再隐瞒的危机，投资者应该做好亏损的准备。也可以说，发布这些公告是为了避免因延迟披露关键信息而产生的任何进一步诉讼成本。统计数据还显示，自从主要折扣店进入市场以来，乐购作为四大杂货零售商之一，在所有的竞争中都难以保持利润。

What happened post announcement of the misstatement was quite similar to what was estimated. The announcement by Tesco of overstating their profits by £250m wasn’t the beginning of their sorrows. It came amongst a streak of terrible performance over the previous years that lead up to a major disaster. Prior incidents that clouded public confidence Tesco begun in January 2012 where they had their first profit warning in 20 years causing a £5bn reduction in market cap. This had a lasting long term effect as Tesco’s stock prices fell from over 400 to the low 300s. As the market progressed, Tesco was struck with another blow as their full year pre-tax profits were reduced by half having a £1bn penalty for backing out from the US venture Fresh & Easy along with UK property market having writedowns. In April 2014, Tesco reported a second consecutive year of falling profits, falling 6.9% to £3.05bn. This was followed by the long-serving finance director Laurie McIlwee announcing his resignation from the firm. Few months later, the acting chief executive, Phil Clarke, said he has never seen such poor trading performance in his 40 years with the firm. He stepped down a month later. Many investors were highly shocked by the news, saying that this is the sort of thing that would occur in the small end of the market, not in the FTSE100. Even shareholders demanded repayment from suspended manager Mr Clarke and then finance director Laurie McIlwee. It was later found that Tesco’s overstatement was larger than initially announced, finalising at £263m in profits. The source of the profits can be related back prior six months, attributing to their practices and told investors that changes will be made over the new managerial changes implemented. Sir Richard Broadbent stood down as chairman, insisting that he chose to leave because it was the appropriate action needed to be taken to demonstrate accountability.

With the change of management and the suspension of previous executives that showed to have neglected internal controls, Tesco recovered slightly in December 2014. However, this shows the pressure of being a publicly traded company going through tough competition and managers fixed on producing short term performance. Increasing demand in performance put pressure on delaying bad news and overstating future profits in order to produce short term boost to stock prices backfired badly. This seems have put Tesco in a terrible spot as they seek to recover back to their glory days.

在宣布错报后发生的情况与估计的情况非常相似。乐购宣布将利润夸大2.5亿英镑，这并不是他们悲伤的开始。这是前几年连续糟糕的表现之一，导致了一场重大灾难。此前，给公众信心蒙上阴影的乐购事件始于2012年1月，当时他们发布了20年来的首次利润预警，导致市值减少了50亿英镑。这产生了持久的长期影响，乐购的股价从400多点跌至300点的低点。随着市场的发展，乐购再次受到打击，其全年税前利润减少了一半，因退出美国合资企业Fresh&Easy而被罚款10亿英镑，英国房地产市场也进行了减记。2014年4月，乐购报告利润连续第二年下降，下降6.9%至30.5亿英镑。随后，长期任职的财务总监Laurie McIlwee宣布辞职。几个月后，代理首席执行官菲尔·克拉克表示，他在公司的40年里从未见过如此糟糕的交易表现。一个月后他辞职了。许多投资者对这一消息感到高度震惊，他们表示，这种事情会发生在市场的低端，而不是富时100指数。就连股东也要求被停职的经理克拉克和当时的财务总监Laurie McIlwee偿还债务。后来发现，乐购的夸大幅度比最初宣布的要大，最终利润为2.63亿英镑。利润来源可以追溯到前六个月，归因于他们的做法，并告诉投资者，将对实施的新管理变革进行变革。理查德·布罗德本特爵士辞去了主席一职，坚称他之所以选择离开，是因为这是展示问责制所需采取的适当行动。

References:参考文献

Barrett, C., Felsted, A. and Sharman, A. (2014). Tesco reveals it overstated first-half results by £250m. [online] Ft.com. 

Cox, R. and Weirich, T. (2002). The stock market reaction to fraudulent financial reporting. Managerial Auditing Journal, 17(7), pp.374-382.

Felsted, A., Oakley, D. and Agnew, H. (2014). Tesco in turmoil after profits overstatement. 

KOTHARI, S., SHU, S. and WYSOCKI, P. (2009). Do Managers Withhold Bad News?. Journal of Accounting Research, 47(1), pp.241-276.

Miller, A. (2015). Tesco scandal | Student Accountant | Students | ACCA Global. 

Ruddick, G. (2014). Tesco crisis: everything you need to know. [online] Telegraph.co.uk. 

Adibi, D., Aziz, J. and Nur, G., Do markets react to fraudulent financial reporting: study of Tesco’s overestimation of revenue.

随着管理层的更换和前任高管的停职，乐购在2014年12月略有恢复。然而，这表明，作为一家上市公司，面临着严峻的竞争，管理层专注于短期业绩的压力。业绩需求的增加给推迟利空消息和夸大未来利润带来了压力，以期在短期内提振股价，但事与愿违。这似乎让乐购陷入了一个可怕的境地，因为他们正在寻求恢复辉煌的日子。本站提供各国各专业留学生作业写作范文以及留学生作业写作辅导，如有需要可咨询本平台。