地理Essay范文：Impact of Population Dynamics in Canada

本文是地理专业的留学生Essay范例，加拿大的人口正在老龄化，尽管移民水平接近历史新高，但人口仍面临衰退。从公共政策的角度来看，这种人口趋势在经济发展、公共支出和社会组织的关系上产生了重大影响。加拿大的总生育率(TFR)约为1.5，并不是没有遇到这种情况;此前，其他发达国家都在解决老年人日益增多、儿童和适龄就业人口日益减少的年龄结构所带来的问题。大多数发达国家确认了这一人口问题，许多发达国家采取了各种政策来缩小其范围并减轻其潜在影响。在北美，这种情况有点独特。美国的生育率相对较高，刚刚低于2.1的更替水平;经常模仿针对西班牙裔美国人的高生育率，以及稳定的定居点。墨西哥的生育率远高于更替率，而且人口普遍较新。自1972年以来，加拿大的生育率一直低于更替水平，但定居率却相当高。最大限度的加拿大人，如果他们意识到其中的问题，他们将采取移民措施来彻底解决人口老龄化带来的挑战，如劳动力减少和依赖比率上升。加拿大的人口正在迅速老龄化，大约一个时代后，老年人将超过儿童。此外，对加拿大主要大都市地区的人口预测也突出表明，目前的生育率和移民趋势将与城市截然相反。据预测，到2051年，加拿大26个主要城市中有10个城市的人口将会增加，而12个城市的人口将会减少。在那些被预测为小城市的城市中，它的面积可能只有现在的一半。发展中城市将是更新和更多样化的。由于在加拿大劳动力占收入份额的近三分之二，劳动力增长的预期放缓增加了重要的劳动力市场和经济增长的挑战(Annabi, Nabil等人，2009年)。

The population of Canada is aging, and fronting population decay in spite of near record high migration levels. This demographic tendency has substantial consequences from a public policy perspective, in relations of economic evolution, public expenses and social organization. Canada, through a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 1.5, is not unaccompanied in facing this encounter; other developed nations are previously addressing the problems related by an age structure categorized by intensely growing numbers of elder people and dwindling numbers of kids and employed age citizens. Most developed nations identify this demographic encounter and numerous have applied a variety of policies to decrease its scope as well as alleviate its potential influences. Within North America the condition is slightly unique. The United States has a comparatively great fertility rate, soaring just below the replacement level of 2.1; frequently imitating a very great fertility rate aimed at Hispanic Americans, in addition stable settlement. Mexico’s fertility degree is well above replacement as well as has a newer population generally. Canada has had a fertility percentage beneath replacement level ever since 1972 however has an impartially high settlement rate. Maximum Canadians, if they are conscious of the matters at play, undertake immigration will take overhaul of the challenges related by an aging populace such as a lessening work force and rising dependence ratio. Rendering to Figures Canada, Canada’s population is getting old rapidly and senior citizens will outstrip kids in about an era. Population forecasts for Canada’s main metropolitan areas moreover highlight how present fertility and immigration tendencies will mark cities very contrarily. It has been predictable that through 2051, 10 out of the 26 main cities in Canada will have increasing populations, whereas 12 will perceive population decay. Of the metropolises predicted to be minor, it could be as little as half their present size. And developing cities will be newer and more varied. Since in Canada labor represents nearly two-third of the revenue share, the anticipated slowing in labor force growth increases important labor market as well as economic growth challenges (Annabi, Nabil et. al. 2009).

Demographics are accurately at this interval of individual as well as collective interests (Demeny. 1986). The sum of children to have, in addition where to exist, is enormously personal queries; however the society likewise has an interest as these behaviors impact collective happiness. The number as well as structure of its affiliation is of pure interest to the entire society, and there is a genuine source for inter-personal impacts in favor to the related behaviors which are far away from virtuously private. What might we propose as a populace policy for Canada, in the logic of an idea of the favored demographic future as well as a debate of the means to transfer in that direction. In my opinion, this might instigate by two elements: (1) the compensations of some population development or at least evading decline, as well as (2) sluggish rather than speedier aging. Considerable demographic development can be frugally useful, or at minimum it has been in the historical, but evading decline is perhaps more significant from a financial point of vision (United Nations. 2000). Decay would mean numerous extra investments and problematic adjustments of numerous kinds, and it would comprise mainly noteworthy aging. On the further hand, environmental influences point to the difficulties of high growth. Though population growth could inspire more ecologically friendly consumption as well as technology, there is no evading the straight multiplier of population extent on ecological impact, specified our principles of living based on great use of energy and additional forms of harmful consumption (Daly. 1999). In the background of doubts associated with ecological questions, the sensible course of act would be to pursue to diminish the impact (LeGrand. 1998).

人口统计数据准确地反映了个人利益和集体利益之间的间隔(Demeny, 1986)。孩子的总数，以及存在的地方，是巨大的个人问题;然而，社会同样有兴趣，因为这些行为影响集体幸福。其从属关系的数量和结构对整个社会具有纯粹的利益，并且有一个真正的个人影响的来源，有利于相关的行为，而这些行为远离道德私人。我们可以提出什么作为加拿大的人口政策，在一个有利的人口未来的想法的逻辑上，以及在这个方向的转移手段的辩论。在我看来，这可能是由两个因素引起的:(1)一些人口发展的补偿或至少避免下降，以及(2)缓慢而不是加速老龄化。相当大的人口发展可以节省开支，或者至少在历史上是这样，但从财政角度来看，避免人口下降可能更重要(联合国，2000年)。衰退将意味着大量额外的投资和各种各样有问题的调整，它将主要包括值得注意的老化。另一方面，环境影响指出了高增长的困难。虽然人口增长可以激励更多的生态友好消费和技术，但不可避免的是，人口程度对生态影响的直接乘数，具体说明了我们的生活原则，大量使用能源和其他形式的有害消费(Daly. 1999)。在与生态问题相关的怀疑的背景下，明智的做法是追求减少影响(LeGrand)。1998)．

In relations of specific constituents, fertility is the vital for both growth as well as aging. There is evidently limited impending for influence in respect to fertility, certain would say there is nothing. Still, reflections on nations that have principally low fertility, for example in Southern as well as Eastern Europe, propose that these very little levels arise when women have prospects in education as well as the labor force, however the family remains customary. If women have to engross the family work, particularly once there are kids, they are mainly focused on to highlighting their parts in the paid work range, where prospects are more equivalent. Fertility in a contemporary society might be made constant by strategies that would support families, irrespective of family type, decrease gender dependences in families, and apt a better allocation of earning and caring actions among males and females (Beaujot. 2000). This would not probably bring fertility beyond replacement; however it may permit more individuals to have the children that they initially envisioned. That is, we should pursue to remove the obstacles to childbearing over better partaking in the costs of kids by fathers and the wider society.

在特定成分的关系中，生育力对生长和衰老都是至关重要的。在生育方面的影响显然是有限的，肯定会说什么也没有。然而，对主要生育率较低的国家(如南欧和东欧)的反思表明，当女性在教育和劳动力方面都有前景时，这些低生育率水平就会出现，但家庭仍是传统。如果女性不得不专注于家庭工作，尤其是有了孩子之后，她们主要会专注于突出自己在有偿工作中的角色，因为这种工作的前景更加平等。当代社会的生育率可以通过各种策略来保持不变，这些策略将支持家庭，不论家庭类型，减少家庭中的性别依赖，并在男性和女性之间更好地分配收入和照顾行动(Beaujot. 2000)。这可能不会使生育率超过替代水平;然而，它可能允许更多的人拥有他们最初设想的孩子。也就是说，我们应该努力消除生育的障碍，而不是更好地分担父亲和更广泛的社会抚养孩子的成本。

Mortality is informal since lengthier and restored lives are a extensively shared value. As designated earlier, in a period of deferred degenerative as well as hybristic mortality, main are the threat factors and management. It points to the significance of constant public education on risk factors, laterally with developments in treatment. It likewise points to the numerous other bases for drawback that discourage persons from enchanting control of their lives. Other threat factors are ecological, where more exploration is required, but there is substantial evidence on the influence of environmental excellence on population wellbeing. In effect, there is additional information on the effect of atmosphere on populace than the effect of populace on atmosphere. However here again, the more danger is the deficiency of political drive to accomplish from the exploration in a policy path.

死亡率是非正式的，因为更长的生命和恢复的生命是广泛共享的价值。如前所述，在延迟退化和杂种死亡的时期，主要是威胁因素和管理。它指出，随着治疗的发展，对危险因素进行持续的公众教育的重要性。它同样指出了许多其他的缺点，这些缺点阻碍人们对自己的生活进行迷人的控制。其他的威胁因素是生态的，这需要更多的探索，但有大量的证据表明环境卓越对人口福祉的影响。实际上，大气对大气的影响比大气对大气的影响有额外的信息。然而，在这里，更大的危险是缺乏从政策路径的探索中实现目标的政治驱动力。

Whereas immigration objectives work quite well, there is requisite for more debate on the basis for fixing these objectives in terms of together number as well as composition. Yet the Immigration Legislative Review (1997) perceived that, for numerous, sums of immigration were not an “interesting topic” as well as that the significant problems were not just figures. The costs as well as remunerations of migration towards the receiving society requisite fuller exploration, particularly in terms of the discrepancy costs and profits to diverse interests and fragments of the society. For example, it is determined in Sweden that by evading the inexpensive solution of guest labors, the society was encouraged to mark more space for females in the labor force, counting policies that would permit labors to have children. Whereas immigration is esteemed in terms of getting diversity, abundance, pluralism as well as contact with a wider world, population regeneration that is markedly based on immigration rather than fertility resources much change as well as possibly less probable for socializing novel members into a shared society. If one contemplates immigration in relations of pressures from exterior of Canada, one mode to grip these pressures is over higher immigration, laterally with fair trade as well as international support. Evidently, higher immigration is of attention to persons who are pursuing to transfer to Canada, and it is frequently of attention to sending societies. I would approve by the Economic Council of Canada (1991) that the situation for migration should not be completed in demographic or else economic relations, however in socio-cultural relations. Whereas immigration somewhat decreases aging, it is an overstatement to say that migration will correct the age arrangement. Likewise, immigration perhaps conveys net macro-economic remunerations, counting a source of labor market regeneration, however internal contemplations are more significant to macro-economic development. As an alternative, the case for migration requests to be made in relations of pluralism, ethnic dynamism, humanitarian apprehensions, and candidness to a wider world. Therefore the level as well as composition of migration essentials to be centered on a political judgment concerning the kind of society that we dearth to shape. We need to develop a civilization that will have virtuous adaptive capability, by being together diverse as well as cohesive. Hence the judgment is neither demographic nor financial, however in terms of the type of immigration that will exploit the occasionally contradictory components of diversity in addition to cohesiveness.

虽然移民目标很有效，但有必要在确定这些目标的数量和组成的基础上进行更多的辩论。然而，《移民立法审查》(1997年)认为，对许多人来说，移民总数并不是一个“有趣的话题”，而且重要的问题不仅仅是数字。向接收社会移徙的成本和报酬需要进行更充分的探讨，特别是关于社会各利益集团和各部分的成本和利润的差异。例如，瑞典决定，通过回避廉价的客工解决方案，鼓励社会在劳动力中为女性留下更多空间，包括允许劳动力生孩子的政策。尽管移民在获得多样性、丰富性、多元性以及与更广阔世界的接触方面受到尊重，但人口再生明显是基于移民而不是生育资源，这很大程度上改变了，而且可能不太可能将新成员社会化到一个共享的社会中。如果考虑移民与来自加拿大外部的压力之间的关系，应对这些压力的一种方式是通过增加移民，横向上通过公平贸易和国际支持。显然，更多的移民对那些寻求移居加拿大的人来说是值得关注的，而且经常对移民输出国来说也是值得关注的。我同意加拿大经济理事会(1991年)的意见，移徙问题不应在人口或其他经济关系中解决，而应在社会文化关系中解决。虽然移民在一定程度上降低了老龄化，但说移民会纠正年龄安排就言过其实了。同样地，移民可能会带来净宏观经济报酬(算上劳动力市场再生的一个来源)，但国内的思考对宏观经济发展更为重要。作为另一种选择，移徙要求在多元主义、种族活力、人道主义忧虑和对更广泛的世界坦诚相待的关系下提出。因此，移民的水平和构成必须集中在一个政治判断上，这个判断涉及到我们无法塑造的社会。我们需要发展一种具有良好适应能力的文明，通过将多样性和凝聚力结合在一起。因此，这种判断既不是人口方面的，也不是财政方面的，但就那种除了凝聚力之外还会利用多样性中偶尔相互矛盾的因素的移民而言。

That leaves worldwide migration, where the strategy basis is best recognized. Whereas the instant demographics of immigration are rationally well proven, the part that these should show in defining immigration levels is far fewer vibrant. There are the small term remunerations to the labor market, laterally with the short term expenses of incorporation, but the long term profits of a bigger population rests on the comparative weight given to financial and ecological considerations.

剩下的就是全球范围内的移民，这一策略的基础得到了最好的认可。尽管即时的移民人口统计数据在理性上得到了充分证明，但这些数据在界定移民水平时应该体现出来的部分却远没有那么有活力。劳动力市场有少量的短期报酬，横向上是合并的短期费用，但人口更多的长期利润取决于金融和生态考虑的相对权重.

In Europe, Asia as well as Australia the reactions to their condition have been diverse. Every nation has engrossed on specific policy responses to multifaceted issues. Most have selected to focus on increasing or upholding a fertility proportion adjacent replacement levels though also paying thoughtful attention to labor market problems such as growing the labor force addition of women as well as other under-represented assemblies, and later superannuation ages for workforces. Some, maximum notably Australia, have likewise looked towards immigration to decrease the probability of reductions in population extent or uncontrollable ageing tendencies. The lessons from additional industrialized states comprise the significance of having a mix of strategies in place to ensure a maintainable population base. Associated to these reactions in other nations, the Canadian approach is different. In Canada, comparatively little consideration has been paid to matters of sustainable population and nothing has been remunerated to problems of fertility rates exterior the region of Québec. The Canadian strategy response has been mainly engrossed on immigration as a basis of development for the labor market and as an extenuating feature for ageing inclinations (McDaniel, Susan, A., Julia Rozanova. 2011). More lately some consideration has been engrossed on other labor market strategies, mainly exploring ingenuities around later superannuation for Canadian workers. The region of Québec has applied more clearly pro-natalist strategies including cash incentives as well as, more lately, general childcare.

在欧洲、亚洲和澳大利亚，人们对他们处境的反应各不相同。每个国家都专注于对多方面问题作出具体的政策反应。大多数人选择关注增加或维持与替代水平相接近的生育率比例，尽管也对劳动力市场的问题给予了深思熟虑的关注，如增加女性劳动力和其他代表不足的集会，以及推迟劳动力的退休年龄。一些国家，尤其是澳大利亚，同样也在寻求移民，以减少人口数量减少或不可控制的老龄化趋势的可能性。从其他工业化国家得到的经验教训包括，采取综合战略以确保维持人口基础的重要性。与其他国家的这些反应相比，加拿大的做法有所不同。在加拿大，对可持续人口问题的考虑相对较少，在Québec区域以外的生育率问题也没有得到任何报酬。加拿大的战略反应主要集中在移民作为劳动力市场发展的基础和作为老龄化倾向的减轻特征(McDaniel, Susan, a.， Julia Rozanova. 2011)。最近，一些考虑集中在其他劳动力市场策略上，主要是为加拿大工人寻找晚些时候退休的办法。Québec地区采用了更明确的亲生育策略，包括现金奖励，以及最近的普通育儿。

We might agree or disagree on these particulars; however the broader difficulty is the absence of an established basis for strategy that would pursue to endogenize population. Observing at the Australian case, McNicoll (1995) discovers that there are numerous impairments to population strategy in liberal democracies. In addition to the absence of a political source for long-term forecasting, the stress on individual well-being, and the lack of consideration to scale, there is likewise a propensity for “government to perceive its electorate only in terms of systematized groups as well as its role that of judging competing statements” (p. 18). In the Canadian situation, Pal (1993) has analyzed in what way numerous “civil society” assemblies, frequently set up by the state, are likewise pursuing rents through the political structure and might control plans based on explicit interests. It would seem that these benefits narrate less to the population as an entire, than to precise apprehensions similar to those of family, feminism, atmosphere, wellbeing, multiculturalism or immigrants. That is, the possible components to discussion of population plan are engrossed in distinctive political dominions and they are accordingly reactive to separate relatively than common benefits. Some of the components would even be in contradiction of any discussion of population plan. There is abundant room for further investigation. We requisite to improve our considerate of the trends in the constituents of population change in directive to have additional secure bases for the forecasts assumptions. Canada essentials further analyses of the inferences of both the actual as well as the potential demographic modification. We likewise need further discerning on the policy side of the developing demographics. In heartening demographers to contemplate of policy, I am encouraged by Canadian basic democratic alignment to count everybody equally in the entire population. Whereas there is scope for those who think of the benefits of specific assemblies, like the elderly, kids, women, visible subgroups, families, or else immigrants, there are likewise compensations to looking at the entire population, and its well-being, counting everybody equally.

我们可能同意或不同意这些细节;然而，更广泛的困难是缺乏一个既定的基础，以推行人口内化的战略。通过对澳大利亚案例的观察，McNicoll(1995)发现，在自由民主国家，人口战略存在许多缺陷。除了缺乏政治的长期预测来源,强调个人幸福,而缺乏考虑,同样有一个倾向“政府认为其选民只有系统化组织以及它的作用,判断竞争声明”(p。18)。在加拿大的情况下，Pal(1993)分析了许多经常由国家建立的“公民社会”集会以何种方式通过政治结构追求租金，并可能基于明确的利益控制计划。看起来，这些好处对整个人口的影响更小，而对类似于家庭、女权主义、氛围、福祉、多元文化主义或移民的精确担忧更大。也就是说，讨论人口计划的可能组成部分集中在不同的政治领土，因此它们对相对分离而不是共同利益的反应。有些组成部分甚至会与任何关于人口计划的讨论相矛盾。有大量的进一步研究的空间。我们需要改进对指令中人口变化组成部分的趋势的考虑，为预测假设提供更多的可靠基础。加拿大要求进一步分析实际的和潜在的人口变化的推论。我们同样需要进一步了解发展中人口的政策方面。在鼓励人口学家思考政策时，我受到加拿大基本民主联盟的鼓舞，认为在整个人口中每个人都是平等的。考虑到特定群体的好处，比如老年人、儿童、妇女、可见的子群体、家庭或其他移民，也有一些空间，但同样地，考虑整个人口及其福祉，平等地计算每个人，也有补偿。

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